13 October 2022 - PLAN

The People's Liberation Army Navy has heard that "No PLAN survives contact with the enemy" and fears it may be true. What action short of war can the PLAN take? I've seen blockade suggested, but blockade is a classic act of war and nothing short of it. For salami slicing, I forecast an inspection regime. As Western navies inspect vessels for weapons headed to Yemen under Security Council resolution 2216, China will insist it can inspect vessels headed to Taiwan for "terrorist contraband"--just a few randomly-chosen "suspicious" ships at first, then ramp it up. The first step in defending your red line is to draw a red line. Where would you draw it?