18 January 2022 - diplomacy fails

Two natural times to invade another country are shortly after you decree that diplomacy has failed, so you can blame others, and shortly before diplomacy fails, so you can surprise them. When American analysts expect no attack before February, that is because they are thinking like Americans. Americans only lose wars, not battles, and they do it by taking no tactical risk, only strategic risk. They forget that reinforcements can arrive later.