2 May 2018 - predict probabilities 1

If you make enough predictions, “an x% chance of y,” and keep track of them, then you have the tools you need to make demonstrably statistically sound predictions—you can promise that the percentages you give are accurate. It’s a simple matter of applying formal methods, or in other words, it is utterly unintuitive. Virtually nobody does it outside of specialized areas like meteorology and election forecasting, which are disliked and distrusted because they honestly predict probabilities, instead of falsely claiming to predict events. Now you understand why fields like sociology and political science have lies in their names.