4 November 2013 - 40% chance of rain

Jay Scott : Daily Whale : archive : 2013 : 4 November 2013

I learned why so many people distrust the weather forecast.

me: What if the forecast says 40% chance of rain and it rains?
unbeliever: That’s a wrong forecast.

And that seems fine. What is the point of learning how probability works when everything else in life is certain?

clue:

Where I come from, the government weather forecasts are “well-calibrated”, which means that when they predict a 40% chance of rain, it rains 40% of the time. Commercial forecasts are deliberately biased, though, depending on the audience.

give me a clue so sweet and true